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Track Record Highlights

Below are examples of Groppe, Long & Littell's past performance, highlighting some of those of which we are most proud — those that set us apart from other forecasters. Our clients come to us because we provide forecasting insight that cannot be found elsewhere.

December 2008 After reaching an average of $140 in June, the spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude had fallen to $53.50 per barrel.
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What everyone else said: Oil prices will remain depressed throughout 2009.

What GL&L said:
OPEC blundered again as it did in 2007 by cutting oil production too much and, more than likely, for too long. The price trend will change direction in early 2009.

What happened: The January average price of $41.68 marked the bottom of the cycle and oil rose steadily, exceeding $66 in May.

May 2008 Over the previous twelve months, oil prices had more than doubled to almost $150 per barrel.
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What everyone else said: Oil prices were widely forecast to reach $200 per barrel.

What GL&L said:
The OPEC production cuts during 2007 were a blunder that would be corrected in the second half of 2008, thus returning oil prices to $60 to $70 per barrel.

What happened: The spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $70 during the third week of October 2008 then fell to the $50 range toward year end.

April 2004 Wellhead gas prices in the United States were above $5 per Mcf and climbing.
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What everyone else said: Numerous projects were proposed for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the United States.

What GL&L said:
The “second coming” of LNG would have the same result as the attempts in the 1980s for the same reason – declining demand for natural gas.

What happened: Natural gas consumption declined by 1.7% in 2005 and again by 1.6% in 2006.

March 2003 West Texas Intermediate was ranging between $27 and $38 per barrel.
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What everyone else said: The anticipated invasion of Iraq would be brief and one result would be lower oil prices.

What GL&L said:
The invasion would lead to a protracted guerrilla war and oil prices above $50 per barrel.

What happened:
Prices began rising, initially exceeding $50 per barrel in October 2004.

March 2001 Oil production in Mexico averaged 3.39 million barrels per day


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What everyone else said: Production in Mexico could be sustained indefinitely.

What GL&L said: A peak in Mexican production is imminent, perhaps in 2003.

What happened: Mexican oil production began falling after reaching 3.62 million barrels per day in 2004.

June 1999 Gas production in the Lower 48 states was 19.78 Tcf
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What everyone else said: The National Petroleum Council, in its 1999 report to the Department of Energy, stated that “US production is projected to increase from 19 Tcf in 1998 to 25 Tcf in 2010, and could approach 27 Tcf in 2015.”

What GL&L said:
A peak in Lower 48 state gas production is imminent.

What happened: Gas production in the Lower 48 states peaked in 2001 at 20.84 Tcf and began its irreversible decline.

April, 1999
OPEC met in March, 1999 and reduced quotas to 25.5 mmbd.

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What everyone else said: The third round of production cuts might get prices back up to $18 to $20 per barrel by year-end.

What GL&L said:
Because the OPEC ministers were confused about the numbers - including belief in “missing barrels” - they made a radical adjustment. If the new agreement holds past the meeting on September 22, the price of WTI can be expected to reach $30 per barrel by the end of 1999.

What happened: WTI was $30.12 per barrel at the end of February, 2000.

October, 1998 Low prices had the industry in a panic.
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What everyone else said: Oil prices will remain depressed for a long time.

What GL&L said: All the fundamentals were in place for a big jump in oil prices within the next six months.

What happened: Oil prices began a dramatic recovery to more than $30 per barrel after the OPEC meeting in March, 1999.

August, 1998 OPEC met in June, 1998 and reduced quotas to 26.5 mmbd. Prices continued to decline in the second half of 1998.
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What everyone else said: The “production cuts” are real and prices will recover to $18 to $20 per barrel.

What GL&L said:
The real cuts in production are minimal. Prices will continue to decline.

What happened: At the end of February, 1999 WTI was $12.27 per barrel.

January, 1998 OPEC met in Jakarta, Indonesia in November, 1997 and raised quotas from 25.0 mmbd to 27.5 mmbd. This was seen as a non-event.
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What everyone else said: Increasing quotas will have little effect because OPEC production of crude oil was already more than 27 mmbd during 1997.

What GL&L said: OPEC production of crude oil in 1997 was only 26 mmbd. The new quotas will drive WTI down to $17 per barrel.

What happened:
At the end of October, 1997 WTI was $21.10 per barrel. At the end of March, 1998 it was $15.72 per barrel.

April, 1996 Enthusiasm for spending was increasing among E&P companies. As 1996 began, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $19.54 per barrel. By the end of 1996 it was $25.76.


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What everyone else said: They said nothing. They didn’t warn anyone about the potential relief from Iraq.

What GL&L said: Iraq will get relief from the embargo following the November U.S. elections because it can prevent a large increase in prices for crude oil.

What happened: Iraq began exporting under the “oil for food” program in December, 1996. For practical purposes, the oil embargo ended in June, 1998.

June, 1993 In a statement related to the National Petroleum Council, the Department of Energy (DOE) wanted to develop “public and private sector confidence that natural gas can make a greater contribution to the energy security and environmental enhancement of our nation.”
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What everyone else said: In their 1992 report on The Potential For Natural Gas in the United States, the National Petroleum Council said that natural gas will be produced and delivered in volumes sufficient to meet expanding market needs at competitive prices -25 Tcf of consumption in 2010.

What GL&L said: The National Petroleum Council report was badly flawed. The long-term outlook is for declines in production and consumption and prices of $4.00 to $5.00 per MMBTU.

What happened: In early 2000, production of natural gas declined and prices were consistently more than $4.00 per MMBTU.

February, 1986 The “gas bubble” - an excess of deliverability over market demand - resulted in lower prices and massive problems with take-or-pay contracts.
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What everyone else said: The gas bubble will end in 12 to 18 months.

What GL&L said:
The gas bubble will persist until 1993.

What happened:
Market demand finally matched deliverability in late 1992. The average wellhead price was $1.93 per MMBTU in 1993 versus $1.35 per MMBTU in 1991.

October, 1980 Arab Light had risen from $12.70 per barrel in 1978 to more than $30 a barrel.
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What everyone else said: Oil prices will continue to increase, perhaps to as much as $100 per barrel.

What GL&L said:
Oil will be selling for $15 per barrel by 1985, half of its 1980 price.

What happened: Prices began falling after the October, 1985 OPEC meeting. In 1986 the average price for Arab Light was at $14.04 per barrel.


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